Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or a cause of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The winger might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
