A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
